Bangkok — Thailand has entered yet another period of political turbulence after Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra was ousted by the country’s Constitutional Court on Friday, August 29, 2025. The ruling, which cited an ethics violation over a leaked phone call with Cambodia’s former leader Hun Sen, not only toppled her government but also underscored the enduring clash between the Shinawatra dynasty and Thailand’s conservative establishment.
Ethics Violation or Political Weapon?
The court ruled 6–3 that Paetongtarn violated ethical standards by prioritizing personal ties over national interests. The leaked conversation, in which she addressed Hun Sen as “uncle” and described a Thai military commander as her “opponent,” was presented as evidence of compromised judgment during heightened border tensions.
While the court justified the decision on grounds of integrity, critics see the move as part of a familiar pattern in which judicial rulings are wielded to weaken populist governments.
Immediate Fallout: Leadership Vacuum
The ruling dissolved Paetongtarn cabinet, installing Deputy Prime Minister Phumtham Wechayachai as caretaker leader until parliament selects a successor. The process, however, promises turbulence:
- The Pheu Thai Party has lost its already fragile coalition grip.
- Its only remaining candidate for prime minister, Chaikasem Nitisiri, is a 77-year-old former justice minister unlikely to unify support.
- Conservative parties and military-aligned factions appear positioned to capitalize on the instability.
A Familiar Cycle of Power Struggles
This is not the first time a Shinawatra has been forced from office. The family’s political saga has shaped Thailand’s modern history:
- Thaksin Shinawatra, Paetongtarn father, rose to power in 2001 on a populist platform that resonated with rural and working-class Thais. His premiership ended in a 2006 military coup, after which he went into self-exile.
- Yingluck Shinawatra, Thaksin’s sister, became prime minister in 2011 but was removed in 2014 by the Constitutional Court for alleged abuse of power, just before another coup.
- Since then, the Shinawatra brand has endured through allied parties, consistently winning elections but repeatedly facing removal through judicial or military intervention.
Paetongtarn’s ousting mirrors this long-running pattern, reinforcing the perception that Thailand’s conservative, royalist-military establishment is unwilling to tolerate sustained Shinawatra leadership.
Regional and Geopolitical Stakes
The fallout extends beyond domestic politics. The leaked phone call with Hun Sen highlights the fragile nature of Thai-Cambodian relations, historically marked by border disputes and nationalist tensions. A weakened government in Bangkok may complicate ASEAN’s ability to project unity in a region already under pressure from U.S.-China rivalry in the Indo-Pacific.
Economically, Thailand risks eroding investor confidence. Prolonged political crises deter foreign investment, undermining its role as a key Southeast Asian hub at a time when global supply chains are shifting.
What Comes Next?
Parliament’s vote to select a new prime minister is expected to be contentious, with no consensus candidate in sight. Street protests — a hallmark of Thai politics in the past two decades — could return if the process is perceived as undemocratic.
For the Shinawatra dynasty, the question is existential: can it adapt and survive yet another ouster, or will 2025 mark the turning point that cements a conservative reassertion of power in Thailand’s fragile democracy?
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