Mozambique is facing one of its most severe humanitarian emergencies in recent years, as catastrophic flooding combines with the onset of the annual cyclone season to create what aid agencies are calling a “double crisis.” As of Thursday, January 22, 2026, more than 600,000 people have been affected nationwide, with conditions deteriorating rapidly in the country’s southern regions.
The International Organization for Migration (IOM), UNICEF, and other UN agencies warn that the convergence of saturated river basins, emergency dam releases, and incoming tropical systems could push the crisis into a far more lethal phase within days.
Gaza Province at the Epicenter
Gaza Province has emerged as the focal point of the disaster, accounting for roughly 75 percent of all affected individuals. More than 380,000 people are impacted in the province alone, with over 91,000 currently sheltering in 72 overcrowded accommodation centers, primarily in Chiaquelene and Xilembene.
The provincial capital, Xai-Xai, is largely submerged. Authorities have issued repeated public safety alerts warning residents to avoid floodwaters, not only due to strong currents and contamination, but also because crocodiles and hippos have been swept into residential areas from the Limpopo River.
Housing vulnerability has magnified the human toll. UN officials report that approximately 90 percent of homes in affected districts are built from adobe, an earth-based material that rapidly degrades after prolonged submersion. Many structures have effectively “melted,” leaving entire neighborhoods uninhabitable.
Why the Flooding Became Catastrophic
The scale of the flooding is not the result of a single storm, but a convergence of environmental and structural factors.
A slow-moving “cut-off low” pressure system stalled over southern Mozambique for several days, delivering between 200 and 250 millimeters of rain in some areas within 24 hours. Because December 2025 was already unusually wet, the soil had no remaining capacity to absorb additional rainfall, turning nearly all precipitation into runoff.
At the same time, Mozambique’s position at the downstream end of major river basins amplified the impact. Heavy rains in South Africa and Zimbabwe forced upstream dams to open floodgates, sending surges of water down the Limpopo River just as local levels were peaking.
To prevent structural failure, Mozambican authorities initiated emergency discharges from the Massingir Dam, releasing water at nearly 25 times its normal volume, approximately 10,000 cubic meters per second. While these releases prevented a catastrophic dam collapse, they directly inundated low-lying districts including Chókwè, Guijá, and Xai-Xai.
A Nationwide Emergency
The flooding has disrupted nearly every aspect of daily life across southern Mozambique.
The country’s main north–south artery, National Road EN1, remains impassable at Incoluane, effectively isolating Maputo from the rest of the country and paralyzing supply chains. More than
3,000 kilometers of roads are currently inaccessible.
Livelihood losses are severe. Over 165,000 hectares of crops have been destroyed, more than
34,000 livestock have perished, and food security is now threatened for tens of thousands of farming households. Approximately 310 health facilities and hundreds of classrooms have been damaged or rendered unusable, leaving more than 85,000 students without access to schooling.
The confirmed death toll has risen to 114, with causes ranging from drowning and lightning strikes to waterborne disease.
Children at Heightened Risk
UNICEF estimates that at least 306,000 children are among those affected. Aid workers warn that unsafe water, overcrowded shelters, and pre-existing malnutrition are creating what they describe as a “deadly spiral.”
Cases of cholera and other waterborne diseases are rising, and protection concerns particularly for girls and adolescents are growing in densely packed accommodation centers. With food stocks depleted and sanitation systems overwhelmed, the humanitarian risks are escalating faster than aid can reach isolated communities.
The “Double Crisis”: Floods Meet Cyclone Season
The emergency has entered a more dangerous phase with the arrival of the annual cyclone season. Tropical Storm Ewetse is currently moving through the Mozambique Channel, prompting a Yellow Alert for Gaza and Inhambane provinces.
Because the ground is already fully saturated, even moderate rainfall from a tropical system could trigger extreme flash flooding. Gaza Province faces a particular threat due to a “backwater effect,” in which storm surge from the coast pushes seawater inland while swollen rivers attempt to drain seaward, trapping floodwaters in urban centers like Xai-Xai.
Humanitarian agencies warn that the combination of weakened housing, crop losses, and incoming high winds could cause a second wave of displacement and fatalities.
Government and Humanitarian Response
The Mozambican government has activated its highest emergency posture. President Daniel Chapo canceled his planned appearance at the World Economic Forum in Davos, stating that saving lives was his “absolute priority.”
A nationwide Red Alert has enabled rapid mobilization of military and civil resources. Search and rescue operations are underway using helicopters, boats, and coordinated deployments with regional partners, including the South African National Defence Force.
With National Road EN1 severed, Mozambique Airlines (LAM) has begun operating emergency shuttle flights between Maputo and Chonguene Airport in Gaza Province, underscoring the severity of the transport disruption and the reliance on air links to move personnel and supplies.
However, capacity gaps remain acute. Aid agencies report an urgent need for additional air assets, clean water and sanitation supplies, emergency shelter, and medical support. The government has acknowledged a funding shortfall of approximately $103 million to sustain relief operations over the next three months.
Looking Ahead
Mozambique’s flooding crisis underscores the growing intersection between climate extremes, infrastructure vulnerability, and regional hydrology. While emergency response efforts continue to focus on immediate life-saving measures, humanitarian officials stress that longer-term investments in resilient housing, early warning systems, and transboundary water management will be essential to reduce future risk.
For now, the priority remains clear: reaching those still trapped, preventing disease outbreaks, and stabilizing communities before the next storm arrives.
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