“The shopkeepers are fair,” Supreme Leader of Iran Ayatollah Khamenei admitted on January 3. But as the Grand Bazaar shuts its doors and the Rial hits 1.45 million to the dollar, the regime’s “fairness” is being delivered via sniper rifle. After a week of his silence, the green light for lethal force has been given. This is no longer a protest it is a calculation of survival.
Starvation by Numbers: Inside Budget 1405
The fuel for this uprising isn’t just chants, it’s a spreadsheet. President Masoud Pezeshkian’s 1405 National Budget, released just days after the June 2025 12-day conflict with Israel, shows a government retreating behind its security apparatus while citizens starve.
- The 145% Surge: The IRGC and Ministry of Defense received $9.23 billion, a 145% increase while hospitals and schools face chronic shortages.
- The Wage Trap: Public sector employees got a mere 20% raise. With real-world inflation at 50%, this effectively amounts to a pay cut.
- The VAT Hammer: A 2% hike (10% → 12%) further punishes Bazaar merchants, who saw their remaining capital redirected toward the security state.
Budget 1405 isn’t a fiscal plan; it’s a war plan. The regime has officially traded its social contract for its sniper rifles.
The Malekshahi Turning Point: Crowd Control to Combat
On January 3, Malekshahi (Ilam Province) became the epicenter of Tehran’s new “shoot-to-kill” posture. Unlike previous protests using batons and tear gas, the 2026 crackdown is militarized.
Verified reports show IRGC units using DShK heavy machine guns and direct live fire against crowds of thousands. Among the 17 confirmed dead are young men like Shayan Asadollahi, a 28-year-old barber from Lorestan. Eyewitnesses describe security forces firing from pickup trucks and rooftops, targeting rural “blind spots” with minimal international observation.
Other high-intensity zones include Kermanshah, Kuhdasht, Azna, and Lordegan, where heavy gunfire and sniper tactics mirror the 2019 “Bloody November” methods.
Hospitals as Battlefield
Perhaps the most harrowing development is the transformation of medical facilities into surveillance tools.
- Siege of Hospitals: In Lorestan, Ilam, and Tehran, plainclothes agents and Basij patrol ER entrances, inspecting all injuries for protest-related wounds. Blood donations are being blocked, and anti-riot units have attempted to raid hospitals.
- Underground Networks: The “White Network” has emerged, doctors performing surgery by candlelight in safe houses, consulting with Iranian specialists abroad via encrypted apps.
- Types of Injuries:
- Direct live ammo, often targeting torsos.
- Close-range birdshot, causing permanent eye injuries.
- Untreated infections, sometimes lethal due to fear of hospitals.
This illustrates a chilling reality: a wounded protester in Iran is treated as a potential criminal.
The “Locked and Loaded” Standoff
The ghost of the June 2025 war lingers over Iran’s streets. President Trump’s Jan 2 warning “locked and loaded” to protect protesters has heightened the stakes.
Some protesters feel emboldened, but the regime’s rhetoric has hardened. Ali Larijani, the Supreme Leader’s security representative, threatened destruction of U.S. bases if intervention occurs. Khamenei, haunted by regional upheavals like the capture of Nicolás Maduro, is using both fear and force to maintain control.
Lessons from 2019: The Shadow of “Bloody November”
Patterns are eerily familiar:
- Economic Shock: 2019 saw petrol protests; 2026, the collapsing Rial.
- Digital Control: 35–50% throttling and localized blackouts are precursors to a potential total “dark window.”
- Demonization: Khamenei’s Jan 3 speech praised “loyal merchants” but labeled youth and student leaders as “mercenary rioters,” providing a legal pretext for violence.
Casualties, Arrests, and the Hidden Injured
Rights groups Hengaw and HRANA report:
- Confirmed Deaths: 16–17 across multiple provinces.
- Arrests: 582+ in the first week, including 40 in Tehran for online activism.
- Injuries: Hundreds, with dozens treated in secret due to fear of hospital arrest.
The regime’s tactics include using live ammunition, sniper fire, and targeting youth leadership to decapitate the protest movement.
The Closing of the Bazaar
When the Bazaar closes, the heart of the Iranian economy stops beating. When the students rise, the regime’s future evaporates. By funding the sniper over the shopkeeper, the Islamic Republic has made its choice.
The coming 48 hours will determine if the strikes expand to the energy sector. If the oil stops flowing as the Bazaar doors remain locked, the 145% security budget won't be worth the paper it's printed on.
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